The Hobby is becoming unrecognizable to me these days as people with seemingly unlimited funds are driving up prices for everything and collectors are getting priced out of the market.
I love the sportscard hobby, specifically prewar and postwar vintage baseball cards. I dabble a little in the modern side of the hobby as well, but not very often and I don't spend a lot in that market. But I'm a collector, and I'm pretty much priced out of a lot what I was chasing and picking up now.
What happened in the last few years? Well I'll tell you. Investors. Investors came in and started buying a few cards that they speculated would increase in value. Then more investors saw the sportscard market as an investment opportunity and they started buying the same cards the early investors were buying. Eventually enough investors came in and the competition for these cards began.
Once the demand got big enough, auction houses were selling cards at record prices all the time. Many times the same card would be bought from one auction house and then a couple months later you'd see it in a different auction and it would sell for a new record price.
So this had an effect on the whole hobby and we saw prices rising for prewar cards and postwar vintage cards across the board. Now, I reside in the low grade market and those cards are going up in price too. Not as much as the higher grade cards but the effect has still influenced the low grade market. For example, T206 commons in VG or less condition used to sell for $15 - 20 but now they command $30 - 40 easily. And HOFers are seeing even greater increases. Especially cards of Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth. Honus Wagner, etc. These cards have gone up thousands of dollars in the last few years. They are breaking records for sale prices on a monthly basis.
What does this mean for the average collector? It means I can't buy the Hank Aaron RC or Ernie Banks RC to complete my 1954 Topps set any time soon. Those are two cards that have spiked in value considerably and are now out of my reach completely. I likely will not be able to finish my E98 set either since I still need Cobb, Wagner and Young. Those are priced out of my range as well. (I also need Collins and Lajoie but I'll should be able to pick them up eventually.)
I'm reading about collectors everywhere being priced out of the market now. Some of them are just calling it quits and getting out of the hobby altogether. Others are changing their focus to other lesser priced sets and type cards. These are sets that weren't very popular to begin with and haven't risen in price as much where a collector can still afford them. Still some collectors are lowering their condition standards and are going after the lower grade cards. This is why the lower grade market is being influenced by the whole investor debacle.
I'm still buying when I find a good deal or I see something that's cool that is priced lower. I think about selling in this market and waiting for the bubble to pop and prices to come back down a bit; Then buy up some of the cards I sold at a lower price but I'm not a fan of selling my cards. They are in my collection because I like them and I don't want to let them go. But, the idea of getting some good money for these cards is a persistent and persuadable thing.
So is this bull market bubble going to pop one day and the investor will get out of sportscards and their seemingly unlimited funds will leave with them. Thus taking the demand away and driving prices down across the board. The collectors will be winning auction lots at lower and lower hammer prices as less money in the hobby means less bids and cards sell for less and less.
I believe this is the case to be honest. I think investors will get out of the hobby eventually and with their money gone it will result in lower prices for all segments of the hobby. What do you think? Put your answer in the comments and let folks know your thoughts on all this. How has this changed your collecting? I'd love to hear from some of you on this topic.
Enjoy the hobby.. it's an ever changing environment.
2 comments:
The investment crowd will begin to wane at some point, but I personally think that we're years from that point. And in the meantime, things are only going to get crazier and crazier. I already miss the days when card collectors were considered social outcasts.
Hi Jon! I think you're correct, unfortunately. I think it will be a few years still of this craziness. And I miss those times where cards were affordable and we were all nerds for collecting cardboard. Always good to hear from you.
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